Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXUS64 KAMA 111829
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
129 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms potential for today and Sunday
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards, but localized flooding can occur.

- Drying trend will return and we`ll be watching close for the
return of elevated to critical fire weather, as the state of the
fuels will need to be assessed after this weekends rain event has
concluded.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Our morning showers have cleared out for the most part and we do
have some clearing and decent surface heating in the south and
eastern Panhandles as temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with
dewpoints in the 50s to near 60. So CAM`s that have been suggesting
some storms that may pop up in the 2 to 5 pm time frame out ahead of
the main wave this evening certainly looks possible.  The biggest
challenge is that the shear doesn`t look that favorable ~20kts. Over
time the effective shear will pick up later this evening.  But for
now with these pop up storms could be working with CAPE values in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range, so that could still support large hail and
damaging winds. While we don`t have the best low level shear until
later tonight and at that time the low level helicity is not that
favorable.  But we do have low LCL`s and some potential for enhance
stretching, so will not rule out a landspout or tornado threat (<2%
chance).  Later this evening as the main wave moves across the area,
the added forcing with peak instability will set up scattered to
numerous storms along the TX/NM border. These storms are expected to
track east across the Panhandles.  Again main concern will be strong
damaging winds and hail up to ping pong size.  As storms merge
together they may just be more of a wind threat later tonight and
then just transition to more of a heavy rain, concern.  PWAT`s are
pretty high in the southeast ~1.25", and therefore storms in that
area will have at least a low end concern for localized flash
flooding.  Further west the PWAT`s drop off, and the threat will be
lower for excessive rainfall, but we`ll still keep an eye on that.

Moving into Sunday we start to transition to southwest flow with
warmer and drier air moving into the Panhandles.  Highs will be in
the 80s and RH values will be down to the teens as a dryline will
set up just east of the Panhandles.  Given the recent moisture
there`s very limited concern for Fire Weather on Sunday, but will
still monitor the situation closely.  Collingsworth County could
still be just east of the dryline tomorrow, so there is a low end
threat for severe weather as storms may develop over that area and
track northeast into Oklahoma.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Currently the extended looks pretty quiet weather wise, but there
are a few things we`ll have to keep an eye on that could bring
impacts to the Panhandles.  Overall, southwest flow aloft will
continue for the work week.  This will result in daily high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s.  Daily lee surface troughs
will set up keeping the dryline just east of the Panhandle for the
most part.  This is one thing to keep an eye on, and subtle shift in
the upper pattern, could result in that dryline shifting further
east which would support possible thunderstorms, or severe weather.
Right now confidence is low that we`ll be seeing any storms next
week.  Assuming this pattern holds; warm, dry, and breezy conditions
will be expected on a daily basis.  That will support a return of
Fire Weather to the forecast.  The fist thing we need to see is how
much the fuels will respond to the weekend rain, and that includes
what`s yet to be known about today and tonight`s rainfall.  That
being said, it would be fair to assume at least elevated Fire
Conditions will be possible, but we will not rule out critical Fire
Weather.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through about 20-22z.  Then we may see
some pop up storms that could result in some MVFR/IFR conditions at
terminals.  PROB30`s are in to take account.  Later on tonight
closer to 00z time period, we may be able to make those more
prevailing or replaced with a TEMPO group, as a band of storms is
expected to track across the Panhandles.  Storms should clear off to
the east pretty close to midnight with VFR conditions returning for
the remainder of the TAF period.  Winds will prevail out of the
south to southwest 10-20kts with some gusts close to 30 kts.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89