Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS64 KAMA 052253
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
553 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

- Areas of light showers will continue through this afternoon,
  with low chances for a thunderstorm or two south of I-40.

- Shower and thunderstorm potential increases Saturday night into
  Sunday, favoring the western to central Panhandles.

- Precipitation chances decrease through next week with
  temperatures in the 80s to low 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Our anticipated cold front has made its way through the Panhandles,
helping to generate some breezy winds and light rain showers.
Going through the rest of this afternoon-evening, winds will die
down and better light shower potential will exist across the
northern Panhandles, with 20-30% chances for a storm or two to
develop south of I-40 where areas were able to heat up a little
more ahead of the front. If storms do form, they will have
potential to produce brief gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain
(20-40% chance for >0.50"). Additional light rain/sprinkles may
last into the evening, but dry air is expected to push in and end
precipitation from north to south through the overnight hours.

Lighter winds and partially clearing skies across the Oklahoma and
northern Texas Panhandle will promote temperatures cooling just
below 50 degrees by Saturday morning, with low to mid 50s
elsewhere. Saturday is shaping up to be another taste of fall with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s. Precipitation chances
are less than 10% until the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday,
when a lead shortwave within the flow is expected to traverse over
the region (20% POPs across the southwest Panhandle before 7 AM).


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Timing of a potentially more potent perturbation on Sunday could
spell the difference between light showers vs thunderstorm
development during the afternoon. If this feature arrives hot on the
heels of the morning disturbance, then the environment may remain
capped/overworked by morning activity, making additional
precipitation hard to come by. However, if the main vort max is
delayed till later in the afternoon and the atmosphere is able to
destabilize, thunderstorms could develop near the TX-NM state line
where sfc convergence may provide enough lift to get things going.
Much uncertainty exists surrounding this potential, but models
currently lean towards an earlier timing of the system, focusing
highest shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday morning across the
southern to central TX Panhandle (30-40% POPs). Lower 20-30%
probabilities remain for the evening-overnight hours since the
slower system progression is still on the table. Monday`s forecast
scenario is very similar to Sunday`s, likely hinging on timing of
disturbances and influence of overnight-morning convection, but
would favor the central to eastern Panhandles where better lift and
moisture should exist.

Tuesday onward, model disagreement increases, but the overall
synoptic signal points towards ridging aloft being amplified over
the region as troughing increases over the Pacific Northwest and SE
CONUS. Such a pattern would promote a warming trend through the rest
of the work week, with highs in the 80s to low 90s each day.
Investigation of ensemble members shows low rain chances could still
exist during this time frame, but the overall upper level pattern
doesn`t appear favorable again until later next week.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

IFR CIGs are likely to prevail through the first 6 to 12 hours of
this TAF period with MVFR CIGs to follow. Some light showers
remain in the combined Panhandles with low confidence in the
terminals being impacted. Therefore, the showers are not
mentioned in the TAFs at this time with some amendments
potentially being needed. Plenty of moisture and cooler air
behind a cold front will keep low clouds in place especially with
winds shifting to the east (upslope) overnight. Winds may become
light and variable at times with winds returning more southerly
between 12Z and 00Z Sunday. Potentially picking up to 10 to 12
kts.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36